Wildfires have increased dramatically in recent years due in part to climate change. Wildfire smoke causes deaths nationwide, with over 90% of wildfire-attributable deaths due to smoke. However, smoke is currently just a peripheral concern of wildfire policy, and under 1% of wildfire funding goes to mitigating smoke hazards. The California Council on Science and Technology (CCST) and Federation of American Scientists (FAS)—respected science-policy translation organizations—indicate that this discrepant focus on flames is due to lacking precise estimates of smoke deaths.

The proposed project aims to fill this gap through research and policy outreach, aiming for smoke to be considered in core California and national wildfire policy. We will use a time-stratified case-crossover study to link wildfire-smoke exposure and mortality, thereby estimating excess deaths attributable to smoke for each wildfire nationwide between 2006- 2020. The research results will support policy outreach, aiming for incorporation of smoke into core wildfire policy. Prior research estimated wildfire-smoke deaths for individual fires in isolated locations, not nationwide, or used health impact functions derived for general air pollution, which is less toxic than wildfire smoke. This study would be the first epidemiological study to directly estimate wildfire-smoke deaths across the United States over many years, and will also examine wildfire smoke-related health inequities with geospatial analysis.